Insurance, Investments and Group Benefits

As we enter the latter half of the year, the Canadian economic outlook remains clouded as it slipped into a technical recession. Persistent domestic and U.S. headwinds continue to weigh on markets, while escalating geopolitical events, a significant increase in AI-related issuance and the potential for private credit risks to spill over have added a new layer of complexity to the forecast. Central banks are remaining data dependent, given the elevated level of uncertainty and will likely lean towards a more balanced policy stance in order to maintain flexibility.  

The first half of 2026 proved to be challenging as energy prices spiked following the war in Iran and subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This had a particular impact on Asian markets, which are the most reliant on oil and gas supplies that pass through the Strait.

As we head into the second half of the year, the U.S. economy is navigating a complex landscape where “resilient growth” clashes with a sudden resurgence of inflation, driven in large part by the war in Iran. The impact of tariffs that were first introduced in April of last year has remained relatively muted. However, inflation has climbed to 4.2 % in May, up 0.4% from the prior month.¹ This will lower the probability of a rate cut in the second half of the year. However, we expect individual tax refunds (including tax relief on overtime and tips), tax reform permitting the immediate expensing of capital spending and other regulatory reforms will work to offset some of the negative impacts of the war in Iran. 

Uncertainty continues to hang over the Canadian economy as it slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter. Global market volatility remains high, driven largely by ongoing geopolitical tensions. These conflicts have caused energy prices to spike, which in turn has impacted both consumer behaviour and overall economic growth. Despite these unexpected escalations, we maintain a positive outlook on several key themes identified at the start of the year. 

The investment landscape for the second half of 2026 is defined by a paradox: a world navigating the severe geopolitical shocks of the war in Iran while simultaneously witnessing an unprecedented acceleration in AI infrastructure and the commercialization of space.

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year has caused a spike in energy prices around the world, as many countries are already grappling with an affordability crisis. As we enter the second half of the year, these are some of the key themes we continue to monitor. 

Join Paul Holba, President and CIO, Empire Life Investments Inc., as he analyzes shifting global markets in the second half of 2026, offering insights on inflation shocks, trade tensions, and active portfolio management.

Annual update discusses potential headwinds for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026 as well as projections for corporate bond spreads in the new year, and how AI spending will continue to impact the debt markets. 

Although tariff uncertainty still exists, we recognize some pockets of growth and resilience in global equities. We will continue to monitor tariffs and geopolitical developments, however, there are some emerging global themes that leave us feeling encouraged.

As we head into the new year, tariff and trade uncertainty remain a key issue. There has been some real progress through 2025, but an agreement has remained elusive between the U.S. and some of its key trading partners (such as Canada and Mexico), and we have seen flareups and cool-downs in trade tensions with China. 

Uncertainty around tariffs remains a sticking point for the Canadian economy as 2025 comes to an end. The banking sector has maintained resilience as we close out the year, and gold has  continued to rally. The S&P/TSX was one of the strongest indices in the developed market, up nearly 30%¹, with sectors such as Materials, and Financials leading the way.