The conventional method to reduce risk in a balanced portfolio involves decreasing the portfolio’s riskier asset class, which for most investors is likely the equity allocation. For example, shifting from 55% equities and 45% bonds to 30% equities and 70% bonds. The following graphic illustrates this as the move to the “lower risk benchmark portfolio”.
Global bond yields have been on a multi-decade decline; therefore, it should be no surprise that today’s yields are at or close to historically low levels. Chart #1 shows the extent of this decline for the 10 year Government of Canada (“GoC”) and U.S. Treasury (“UST”) bonds. From December 1990 to June 2016, the GoC yield started the period at 10.3%, averaged 5.1%, and closed at a mere 1.06%. Over the same period, the UST yield started at 8.4%, averaged 4.8%, and closed at a mere 1.5%.
There is no normal retirement date anymore. There is no hard-fast retirement date everyone has to hit. The answer to the question; "when will you retire?" is becoming a very individual decision, and one you need to plan for and periodically stress test to make sure it's still going to work for you. Here's what we do know.
Semi-deviation (also called downside deviation) is a variation of the more commonly used metric, standard deviation. Both measures track the historic variability of returns around an investment’s average return, however, semi-deviation only considers those returns that fall below the investment’s average. A lower semi-deviation indicates an investment with lower downside risk.
My last blog discussed the importance of downside protection, specifically looking at the asymmetry of gains and losses, and poor historical investor behaviour. This blog will investigate some strategies investors can implement to potentially protect their portfolio from significant losses in down markets, while still allowing them to participate in rising markets.
Markets go up and markets go down. That’s the nature of investing in stocks and bonds, whether directly or indirectly through investment funds. Investors generally like upside volatility (when markets go up), but are much less tolerable towards downside volatility (when markets go down). Implementing downside protection strategies regardless of current market conditions can help reduce volatility when markets do go down, thereby helping to preserve and build wealth over the long-term.
In my last post, I shared the issue of naming an adult, independent child as a beneficiary of a registered retirement plan, (either a Registered Retirement Savings Plan or a Registered Retirement Income Fund (income version). (see Registered Retirement Plans with Named Beneficiaries: Unintended Consequences ) You may wish to avoid paying probate and estate costs on your plan. You may want to make the transfer as seamless and efficiently as possible. You may want to leave someone something extra. One issue is that the person receiving the money usually pays no tax. The estate usually pays the tax. The Canada Revenue Agency first looks to the estate to pay any income taxes owing. Only when there are insufficient monies in the estate, does the Canada Revenue Agency assess the beneficiary of the registered retirement plan for any balance owing. That means the beneficiaries in the will shoulder the tax bill. Is that the intention?
Let’s say you’re single, divorced or widowed. You have saved up some money for retirement. Perhaps you are already retired and are taking out an income from your registered plan. You may not get to spend all of your savings during your lifetime. Where does the balance go?
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a number of new policy initiatives on March 10, including:
Global stock market volatility accelerated in recent days on renewed global economic weakness concerns. Continued economic and stock market weakness in China has received much of the blame for the recent volatility. Last week’s devaluation of the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar was an attempt by the Chinese government to boost exports, but may also signal an economy that is weaker than official reports indicate.
