Paul Holba, Senior Vice-President and CIO of Empire Life Investments Inc. discusses some of the key themes the investment team will monitor as we head into the second half of 2024.
Paul Holba, Senior Vice-President and CIO of Empire Life Investments Inc. discusses some of the key themes the investment team will monitor as we head into the second half of 2024.
Amina and Sanjay are a young Canadian couple looking forward to buying their first home. They both have satisfying jobs and are financially savvy. Through Amina’s grandfather they were introduced to an advisor who told them about the First Home Savings Account (FHSA), and they think it’s a good way to save for a home.
An index fund is an investment fund that aims to provide returns similar to those of market benchmark. This is generally done by investing in the same securities (or a representative sample) as the target benchmark.
Although it can be tempting to put your investment goals aside to chase these returns, beware of FOMO, which can introduce an unreasonable level of risk in your portfolio.
We maintain a positive view of fixed income as it appears rates have peaked, growth trajectories are slowing (making less risky assets relatively more appealing), and yields are starting the year at an attractive level. We believe this could cause the yield curve to re-steepen and lead to less inverted, or even positive, sloping curves.
Economic growth is expected to continue to slow in 2024. Higher interest rates are anticipated to weigh more heavily on Canadian consumers and overall economic activity in 2024. Higher rates have had a disproportionately negative impact on Canadians due to higher consumer debt levels and shorter duration mortgages compared to the U.S. Unemployment is also expected to continue to increase at a slightly higher pace compared to 2023.
As we begin the new year, we have a slightly negative outlook on Europe, slight optimism on China and a continued positive view of Japan.
Last year was a volatile year in U.S. equity markets. In March, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, a prominent lender in the tech industry with $210 billion in assets, was the first of a series of regional bank failures that later included Signature Bank, Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank. This led to fears of a broader banking crisis, although it was ultimately contained.
As we begin the new year, we’re reflecting on some of the key themes that impacted the markets in 2023. This includes everything from interest rates and inflation to geopolitical events and generative artificial intelligence (AI). We expect that many of these themes will continue to influence markets in 2024, and we’ll continue to monitor them for risks and opportunities as they may arise.
From regional bank failures to unresolved geopolitical tensions to explosive growth in artificial intelligence. We have seen it all in 2023, and there are still many questions investors face as we head into the new year.
Paul Holba, SVP and CIO, Empire Life Investments Inc. breaks down some of the key themes that we expect will impact the markets in the coming year, such as potential rate cuts, unresolved geopolitical tensions and considerations when it comes to big tech and AI.
