Empire Life Blog

Has the market already had its recession?

Written by Empire Life Investments | Aug 18, 2026, 4:04:41 PM

When people hear the word “recession,” they often picture one big market event: a sudden drop, scary headlines, and a clear turning point. But recent market history suggests the experience may have been more gradual. Think of it less like one storm hitting the whole neighbourhood at once, and more like bad weather moving street by street. Some areas were hit early, others later, and a few were still dealing with the cleanup well after the headlines had moved on.

The idea is sometimes called a “rolling recession.” In this case, the data looked at current S&P 500 companies from January 2021 through July 2026 and found that 93% had fallen at least 20% from a previous monthly high at some point. That level of decline is commonly described as bear-market territory. Even more striking, 69% of those companies had fallen 30% or more.1

For consumers and everyday investors, the important point is this: the market’s pain did not arrive all at once. Technology was part of the first wave, with many companies falling sharply by mid-2022. Industrials and financial services were also pressured early. By September 2022, weakness had spread to real estate, communication services, consumer cyclical companies, and basic materials. Later, pressure showed up in areas such as energy, utilities, consumer defensive stocks, and healthcare. In other words, the “market crash” did not have one date on the calendar.

Source: Morningstar Research Inc as of July 31, 2026. Based on underlying constituent data of the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF, compiled by Empire Life.

This matters because the headline index can sometimes hide what is happening underneath. A broad market benchmark may look relatively resilient, while many individual stocks have already gone through meaningful declines of 20%, 30% or even more from earlier highs. It is a bit like looking at the average temperature for a whole country: the national number may seem mild, even while certain regions are dealing with a deep freeze.

For long-term investors, uncertainty does not automatically mean standing still. Dispersion—when different sectors perform very differently—can create entry points for selective investing. For example, a portfolio review may reveal that some areas have already repriced significantly, while others remain expensive or concentrated. Rather than waiting for one obvious “all clear” signal, investors may want to focus on time horizon, diversification, and whether their portfolio still matches their goals.

The key takeaway is simple: the market may not always announce its reset with one dramatic event. Sometimes the reset rolls through quietly, sector by sector. For investors with long-term money, the question may not be “What if a crash is coming?” but “What opportunities may already be emerging after the damage has been done?”

1 Based on data derived from Morningstar Research Inc as at July 31, 2026, compiled by Empire Life.

This article is for general information only and is not investment advice. Market declines and past performance do not guarantee future results. Investors should consider speaking with a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
 
This document reflects the views of Empire Life as of the date published. The information in this document is for general information purposes only and is not to be construed as providing legal, tax, financial or professional advice. The Empire Life Insurance Company assumes no responsibility for any reliance on or misuse or omissions of the information contained in this document. Information contained in this report has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please seek professional advice before making any decisions.

® Registered Trademark of The Empire Life Insurance Company. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

 

August 2026