Ian Fung, Portfolio Manager, Fixed income, discusses recent BoC and Fed interest rate moves, inflation, employment and their potential effect on upcoming rate decisions.
This past week has been marked by significant developments in the United States, highlighted by President Donald Trump's conclusive electoral triumph, along with a policy adjustment from the Federal Reserve, which elected to reduce the overnight interest rates by 25 basis points. In response to these pivotal events, the Empire Life Investments Inc. team provides some explanation of the prospective implications on financial markets, with a particular focus on the U.S. market. The informed perspectives of Ashley Misquitta, Investment Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager and Ian Fung, Senior Portfolio Manager have been collated and are presented here for a fuller understanding of the anticipated market dynamics.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution may be a watershed moment in human history, eclipsing the transformative power of its predecessors through the fusion of physical, digital, and biological spheres. As we witness the integration of groundbreaking technologies like AI, robotics, IoT, blockchain, and biotechnology, the investment landscape presents a wealth of opportunities that mirror the massive economic shifts of past revolutions.
The “Magnificent 7” refers to a group of leading tech companies — including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta (Facebook), Tesla, and Nvidia — that have shown exceptional growth and market performance. While there may have been doubts that the run would continue after the massive returns over the last decade, here are several reasons why we believe these companies will continue to perform strongly into the next decade.
Fiscal stimulus remains an upside risk to growth in both Canada and the U.S.. Government bonds remain attractive heading into the second half of the year. Corporate bond holders are not being compensated as much for taking on corporate credit risk, with spreads at near 20-year lows, although all-in yields look attractive.
The Bank of Canada has expressed confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Canadian consumers will require further rate cuts and more time to alleviate pressure from their large debt-loads. The Trans Mountain Pipeline and LNG Canada project will create a positive backdrop for Canadian oil and natural gas.
Europe has benefited from falling inflation and positive GDP revisions. Wage increases and improved corporate governance standards are among some of the reasons we maintain a positive view of Japan heading into the second half of the year. Chinese equities maintain attractive valuations.
Market sentiment now indicates that rate cuts will not occur until the third quarter of 2024. Despite signs of strength, the direction of the economy and the likelihood of a recession remain uncertain. Relations between the U.S. and China are expected to remain strained regardless of the U.S. election outcome.
Dean is a single Canadian in his twenties looking forward to buying his first home. He’s planning to increase his home savings as his income grows over time. Dean’s advisor recommends a First Home Savings Account (FHSA) because it will give Dean up to 15 years to save, which suits his budget and time frame.
