Insurance, Investments and Group Benefits

2025 was a year of transition characterized by both global uncertainty and resilience. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions drove market volatility throughout the year, and we expect these uncertainties to carry over into the new year. However, there are a number of emerging themes that leave us feeling encouraged.

As we turn the page to 2026, our focus remains on navigating challenges and uncovering opportunities that drive long-term growth.

Here are some of the global themes we believe will impact markets in the new year.

Join Paul Holba, President and CIO, Empire Life Investments Inc., as he navigates the 2026 market outlook where geopolitical volatility and persistent inflation persist, while AI drives growth, and key themes emerge across fixed Income, equities, and the rise of "Global Champions".

Paul Holba, President and CIO of Empire Life Investments Inc. discusses some of the key themes the investment team will monitor as we head into the second half of 2025.

Inflation, geopolitical instability, and energy transitions require a proactive approach to protect wealth.

Join Paul Holba, SVP and CIO, Empire Life Investments Inc., as he provides expert insights into the key trends that will shape the markets in 2025, including inflation trends, central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and the resurgence of nuclear energy.

This past week has been marked by significant developments in the United States, highlighted by President Donald Trump's conclusive electoral triumph, along with a policy adjustment from the Federal Reserve, which elected to reduce the overnight interest rates by 25 basis points. In response to these pivotal events, the Empire Life Investments Inc. team provides some explanation of the prospective implications on financial markets, with a particular focus on the U.S. market. The informed perspectives of Ashley Misquitta, Investment Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager and Ian Fung, Senior Portfolio Manager have been collated and are presented here for a fuller understanding of the anticipated market dynamics.

Paul Holba, Senior Vice-President and CIO of Empire Life Investments Inc. discusses some of the key themes the investment team will monitor as we head into the second half of 2024.

Key takeaways:  

• Exposure to international equities was increased by 0.25%-1.5%
• Exposure to US equities was decreased by 0.25%-1.5%
• Our exposures to the other asset classes were rebalanced back to target
  

Market Implications of the Conflict in the Middle East

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated following the attack on Israel on October 7th by Hamas militants from the neighbouring Gaza Strip. The incursion sparked international backlash, and Israel announced a complete siege of Gaza on October 9th. This conflict has led to a considerable death toll on both sides, a hostage crisis involving over 200 Israeli and international citizens and a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. 

Recently, we sat down with SVP and CIO, Paul Holba to get his thoughts on the events that have impacted markets year to date, and where the investment team sees opportunity going forward. In this video, Paul shares:

• How almost 73% S&P500’s returns were attributed to the performance of a handful of companies known as the “Magnificent Seven Stocks”.
• The impacts of the aggressive interest rate hikes by Central banks, what investors can expect and how it could affect their portfolios.
• How staying true to an active management strategy may be instrumental in preserving wealth during a global economic slowdown.

In early June, the S&P 500 rose by more than 20% from its October low, reaching its highest level since April of last year. Often observed as a barometer for the overall health of the U.S. economy, the index’s strong performance generated some optimism with respect to the trajectory of the U.S. economy. However, when considering the market breadth, which refers to the number of stocks that are moving the index, a less optimistic picture emerges.