When people hear the word “recession,” they often picture one big market event: a sudden drop, scary headlines, and a clear turning point. But recent market history suggests the experience may have been more gradual. Think of it less like one storm hitting the whole neighbourhood at once, and more like bad weather moving street by street. Some areas were hit early, others later, and a few were still dealing with the cleanup well after the headlines had moved on.
Whether you’re a First Time Home Buyer (FTHB) with a First Home Saving’s Account (FHSA) or a property veteran renewing your mortgage, we all know of the financial responsibilities that come with owning a home. Down payments, property taxes, mortgages, and all the little unforeseen costs add up.
As we enter the latter half of the year, the Canadian economic outlook remains clouded as it slipped into a technical recession. Persistent domestic and U.S. headwinds continue to weigh on markets, while escalating geopolitical events, a significant increase in AI-related issuance and the potential for private credit risks to spill over have added a new layer of complexity to the forecast. Central banks are remaining data dependent, given the elevated level of uncertainty and will likely lean towards a more balanced policy stance in order to maintain flexibility.
The first half of 2026 proved to be challenging as energy prices spiked following the war in Iran and subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This had a particular impact on Asian markets, which are the most reliant on oil and gas supplies that pass through the Strait.
As we head into the second half of the year, the U.S. economy is navigating a complex landscape where “resilient growth” clashes with a sudden resurgence of inflation, driven in large part by the war in Iran. The impact of tariffs that were first introduced in April of last year has remained relatively muted. However, inflation has climbed to 4.2 % in May, up 0.4% from the prior month.1 This will lower the probability of a rate cut in the second half of the year. However, we expect individual tax refunds (including tax relief on overtime and tips), tax reform permitting the immediate expensing of capital spending and other regulatory reforms will work to offset some of the negative impacts of the war in Iran.
Uncertainty continues to hang over the Canadian economy as it slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter. Global market volatility remains high, driven largely by ongoing geopolitical tensions. These conflicts have caused energy prices to spike, which in turn has impacted both consumer behaviour and overall economic growth. Despite these unexpected escalations, we maintain a positive outlook on several key themes identified at the start of the year.
The investment landscape for the second half of 2026 is defined by a paradox: a world navigating the severe geopolitical shocks of the war in Iran while simultaneously witnessing an unprecedented acceleration in AI infrastructure and the commercialization of space.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year has caused a spike in energy prices around the world, as many countries are already grappling with an affordability crisis. As we enter the second half of the year, these are some of the key themes we continue to monitor.
Join Paul Holba, President and CIO, Empire Life Investments Inc., as he analyzes shifting global markets in the second half of 2026, offering insights on inflation shocks, trade tensions, and active portfolio management.
Mental health in the workplace has become an increasingly important topic for organizations across Canada. Yet, one issue remains widely under-discussed: men's mental health. While the stigma around mental health is declining overall, many men still face significant barriers to seeking support. Cultural expectations around masculinity, self-reliance and emotional control can make it difficult for men to acknowledge mental health challenges or ask for help.
Caregivers are the invisible workforce within your organization; employees who balance their primary job with what amounts to a second, unpaid full-time job. According to the Canadian Centre for Caregiving Excellence, caregivers provide an average of 5.1 hours of care daily, which is nearly equivalent to another full-time job.1
