As we head into the new year, tariff and trade uncertainty remain a key issue. There has been some real progress through 2025, but an agreement has remained elusive between the U.S. and some of its key trading partners (such as Canada and Mexico), and we have seen flareups and cool-downs in trade tensions with China.
Uncertainty around tariffs remains a sticking point for the Canadian economy as 2025 comes to an end. The banking sector has maintained resilience as we close out the year, and gold has continued to rally. The S&P/TSX was one of the strongest indices in the developed market, up nearly 30%1, with sectors such as Materials, and Financials leading the way.
2025 was a year of transition characterized by both global uncertainty and resilience. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions drove market volatility throughout the year, and we expect these uncertainties to carry over into the new year. However, there are a number of emerging themes that leave us feeling encouraged.
As we turn the page to 2026, our focus remains on navigating challenges and uncovering opportunities that drive long-term growth.
Here are some of the global themes we believe will impact markets in the new year.
Join Paul Holba, President and CIO, Empire Life Investments Inc., as he navigates the 2026 market outlook where geopolitical volatility and persistent inflation persist, while AI drives growth, and key themes emerge across fixed Income, equities, and the rise of "Global Champions".
Investments, Personal Finance, Registered Disability Savings Plan, RDSP
Planning for long-term financial security can feel daunting. But for Canadians with disabilities, and their families, there’s a powerful savings tool designed to help you reach your financial goals. It’s called a Registered Disability Savings Plan (RDSP).
Nearly two in three eligible Canadians have not yet opened an RDSP.1 This means they’re missing out on valuable government benefits that can make a huge difference for the future.
This mid-year update covers H1 2025 fixed income volatility from trade and global economic uncertainty. It details the BoC's two rate cuts and the Fed's steady approach, alongside Moody's downgrade of US debt to AA due to tariffs and deficits.
This mid-year economic update examines significant equity shifts to Europe due to U.S. policy uncertainty and Europe's strengthening conditions. It also details Japan's inflation issues and BOJ limitations, alongside China's property sector woes and modest stimulus.
U.S. capital deployment is hindered by tariff and trade uncertainty. A reconciliation bill is expected to pass the Senate, avoiding significant tax increases in October 2025. Bipartisan support is driving a U.S. nuclear energy renaissance.
Paul Holba, President and CIO of Empire Life Investments Inc. discusses some of the key themes the investment team will monitor as we head into the second half of 2025.
Canadian banks navigate economic uncertainty with strong provisions. Volatile oil prices and a constructive North American natural gas outlook. Gold shines as a key diversifier, up 22% YTD amid fiscal concerns, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
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