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Downside Protection Applications

Investment Views, Investments

Asset Allocation

The conventional method to reduce risk in a balanced portfolio involves decreasing the portfolio’s riskier asset class, which for most investors is likely the equity allocation. For example, shifting from 55% equities and 45% bonds to 30% equities and 70% bonds. The following graphic illustrates this as the move to the “lower risk benchmark portfolio”.

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Yield Verboten

Investment Views, Investments

Global bond yields have been on a multi-decade decline; therefore, it should be no surprise that today’s yields are at or close to historically low levels. Chart #1 shows the extent of this decline for the 10 year Government of Canada (“GoC”) and U.S. Treasury (“UST”) bonds. From December 1990 to June 2016, the GoC yield started the period at 10.3%, averaged 5.1%, and closed at a mere 1.06%. Over the same period, the UST yield started at 8.4%, averaged 4.8%, and closed at a mere 1.5%.

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Evaluating Downside Protection

Investment Views, Investments

Semi-deviation (also called downside deviation) is a variation of the more commonly used metric, standard deviation. Both measures track the historic variability of returns around an investment’s average return, however, semi-deviation only considers those returns that fall below the investment’s average. A lower semi-deviation indicates an investment with lower downside risk.

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Downside Protection Strategies

Investment Views, Investments

My last blog discussed the importance of downside protection, specifically looking at the asymmetry of gains and losses, and poor historical investor behaviour. This blog will investigate some strategies investors can implement to potentially protect their portfolio from significant losses in down markets, while still allowing them to participate in rising markets.

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Importance of Downside Protection

Investment Views, Investments

Markets go up and markets go down. That’s the nature of investing in stocks and bonds, whether directly or indirectly through investment funds. Investors generally like upside volatility (when markets go up), but are much less tolerable towards downside volatility (when markets go down). Implementing downside protection strategies regardless of current market conditions can help reduce volatility when markets do go down, thereby helping to preserve and build wealth over the long-term.

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Ditch the Narrative

Investment Views, Investments

I came across an excellent blog post entitled, “You Are Owed Nothing” that highlighted that real (after inflation) returns of capital are not a given. In particular, the 1965-1980 market stood out to me as one with no strong narrative as to why markets treaded water for so long.

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The Fiscal Front

Investment Views, Investments

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a number of new policy initiatives on March 10, including:

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Winner! Fundata FundGrade A+ Awards

Investment Views, Investments

In the midst of all this market volatility it feels good to announce that the Empire Life Emblem Growth Portfolio1, Elite Balanced Fund2, and Asset Allocation Fund3 are 2015 Fundata FundGrade A+ Award winners!

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Interested in Short Interest

Investment Views, Investments

Recently there has been a lot of talk about short sellers as they've "attacked" some Canadian businesses. There is often a strong emotional reaction to short-sellers, but we should also have a logical, proactive process for dealing with them.

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Market Volatility Perspective

Investment Views, Investments

Global stock market volatility accelerated in recent days on renewed global economic weakness concerns. Continued economic and stock market weakness in China has received much of the blame for the recent volatility. Last week’s devaluation of the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar was an attempt by the Chinese government to boost exports, but may also signal an economy that is weaker than official reports indicate.

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